I've been reviewing significant earthquake activity, which I define as seismic events of 6.5 magnitude or higher, for about two years at retrojoe.hubpages.com where I have been looking backwards and forwards in relation to their occurrence. In other words, I make predictions for a forthcoming month and when that month is behind us I review how I did and make another monthly forecast.
Since estimations of earthquake magnitude often varies from source to source, I look at several and try to come up with a best estimate based on an average of them. The principle sources that I use for current events is the NEIC database supplied by the USGS, the Global CMT catalog, and GEOFON Program GFZ Potsdam, Germany.
How I do what I do is based on the old adage of "As Above So Below", or that our earth is a microcosm of the macrocosm of our solar system and that much of what happens here in theory should be reflected geometrically in the heavens. Of course that sounds like astrology, but what I chose to do was link certain key angles between specific planetary groupings which occurred more often than usual during past earthquakes. What I came up with is many aspects that most astrologers never consider in their interpretations or forecasts.
I then took these aspects and programmed them into an astrology program to let me know when they are coming into focus. Lately, I have included data related to solar eclipses into my methods of prediction. I have not chosen to use lunar eclipses since I believe that the gravitational effects of the later would be too diffuse to be a key factor. I have also chosen not to consider the period of time before the eclipse occurred as being a factor in prediction either. Many astrological texts leads the reader to believe that their is a before it occurs effect to eclipses (on the order of days or weeks before), but I can't see that as likely unless they are referring to no more than an hour or two before the eclipse reaches its peak (anything more than that would seem to be ridiculous).
My database of past earthquakes that I use to try and pin down locations for future earthquakes is comprised of 373 worldwide charts and 127 U.S. charts or 500 in total. This database was also used to determine the angular aspect algorithms for determining likely future windows for significant seismic activity.
One thing that is needed to get an idea of how my predictions are doing is to get a grasp of statistics or how frequently certain earthquakes occur. I feel that understanding how much energy each individual magnitude would release can be important as well. On average, my windows make up 33% of a month in time or approximately 10 days out of 30. Earthquakes of 6.5 magnitude or higher occur on average about 4 times each month and thus, on average there should be 1 or 2 such quakes occurring within my windows and 2 or 3 outside of them. Over the course of the past 2 years my forecasts have become more and more accurate (as I tweak my algorithms) so that on average my results yield just the opposite of how statistics says earthquakes should occur (2 or 3 inside the seismic windows and 1 or 2 outside of them).
What I have found is, that at times of greater frequency in earthquake activity (say 6 or more significant earthquakes per month) my forecasts appear to do better. They also do better when the average magnitude of the monthly quakes or the total energy released is higher than usual. Typically, an average monthly breakdown in the present would consist of 3 earthquakes of 6.5 to 7.2 magnitude and 1 earthquake of 7.3 magnitude or higher. When there is more of the later and less of the former, my forecasts do better.
As the year 2013 comes to a close I plan to start using another webpage/blog to supplement and link to my hubpages Earthquake Weather Reports and other related hubs. I would like that medium to be commercial free and directly under my control for promotion purposes. In so doing, more interest in my writings should be attained and more traffic directed to the main hubpages. I am also looking for more feedback. All are welcome to leave a comment; believers and skeptics alike.
This blog and others are candidates, including my latest Earthquake Prediction Blog at weebly where the possibility of at least one major earthquake in the United States is explored (following an eclipse in August 2017).
